The UAE is considering moving away from the US dollar to the Chinese yuan amid rising regional tensions and economic instability, challenging traditional alliances.
The end of the USD Reserve status is going to cause an absolute shitload of harm in the US (at the very least, huge inflation) but how much damage is it really going to cause elsewhere?
The US isn’t a keystone nation in most manufacturing processes anymore, nor does it produce anything that nobody else does: Modern day America mainly exports Social Media and enshittification. Even things like cloud services are provided by datacenters all over the World with the ones based in North America serving North America.
The greatest value of the US for the rest of the World is as a big consumer market for their exports, not as an essential provider of anything which is physically bound to it.
Absolutelly, there would be damage, especially for any nation left holding US Treasuries to the end (especially in the worst scenario of a US default), but “absolute shitload of harm” outside the US, that doesn’t seem likely: if the US magically dissapeared today a bunch of multinational companies would see their Revenues fall maybe 15% but otherwise things would just keep on working because very little the US makes is key.
Granted, countries for which the US is a disproportionatelly high export market like Canada and Mexico would suffer a lot economically, plus Israel would collapse without America’s propping up, but beyond that …
Importance of Petrodollar is overstated. Currencies are easily exchangeable, and the value of GCC colonies is the massive recirculation of oil profits to US investments/weapons, The harm to US that comes is the economic destruction of GCC, and US incapacity to protect them, which forces them into alliance with Iran/China. Their previous necessity of US/Israel alliance was to protect them from US/Israel coups/attacks that would install an Israel puppet like in Lebanon/Syria, or Reza Pahlavi for Iran.
It’s possible for GCC to end up without US bases, but still buy US/Israel protection without their weapons. Its easier to have free shipping if they let go of Israel support. Free shipping is what permits GCC to invest in the US to buy protection from US/Israel. They may try to walk that fine line, but in short term (and long term renewable penetration) they will invest everything in their own reconstruction.
The end of the USD Reserve status is going to cause an absolute shitload of harm in the US (at the very least, huge inflation) but how much damage is it really going to cause elsewhere?
The US isn’t a keystone nation in most manufacturing processes anymore, nor does it produce anything that nobody else does: Modern day America mainly exports Social Media and enshittification. Even things like cloud services are provided by datacenters all over the World with the ones based in North America serving North America.
The greatest value of the US for the rest of the World is as a big consumer market for their exports, not as an essential provider of anything which is physically bound to it.
Absolutelly, there would be damage, especially for any nation left holding US Treasuries to the end (especially in the worst scenario of a US default), but “absolute shitload of harm” outside the US, that doesn’t seem likely: if the US magically dissapeared today a bunch of multinational companies would see their Revenues fall maybe 15% but otherwise things would just keep on working because very little the US makes is key.
Granted, countries for which the US is a disproportionatelly high export market like Canada and Mexico would suffer a lot economically, plus Israel would collapse without America’s propping up, but beyond that …
Importance of Petrodollar is overstated. Currencies are easily exchangeable, and the value of GCC colonies is the massive recirculation of oil profits to US investments/weapons, The harm to US that comes is the economic destruction of GCC, and US incapacity to protect them, which forces them into alliance with Iran/China. Their previous necessity of US/Israel alliance was to protect them from US/Israel coups/attacks that would install an Israel puppet like in Lebanon/Syria, or Reza Pahlavi for Iran.
It’s possible for GCC to end up without US bases, but still buy US/Israel protection without their weapons. Its easier to have free shipping if they let go of Israel support. Free shipping is what permits GCC to invest in the US to buy protection from US/Israel. They may try to walk that fine line, but in short term (and long term renewable penetration) they will invest everything in their own reconstruction.