Phew… I thought valve is quitting

I find the article too short, dropping detail before explaining the bigger picture. The headline seems to want to evoke some sort of strong sentiment, but the article itself is running out of steam.

But the biggest reason for Europe’s lacklustre response to the looming economic crisis caused by the latest Middle East war is that the bloc has no gas left in the tank – literally, because gas storage is at a nine-year low.

• nb, “looming”. Not saying they’re wrong but this is a weasel word
• same with “lacklustre” - this is also not sufficiently explained by the preceding points of the article
• “low” does not equal “no” - another wrong use of “literally”

1/5 stars

There are few big differences that account for the difference in effect and response so far.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the tail end of winter, and had an immediate impact on gas supplies due to sanctions. Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and Germany, was particularly dependent on Russian gas for heating. There was an immediate potential issue if we’d had a cold snap as well as an inevitability of limited gas supplies to rebuild the reserves over the summer into the next winter.

The Iran conflict started at the end of March 2026, the beginning of spring, and has impacted on oil supplies. But Europe does not get oil from the middle east via the Strait of Hormuz; instead those supplies go east to India, China and Japan for example.

At present there is not a physical shortage in Europe; supplies have already been secured and paid for before the conflict. That will change as the crisis goes on. Oil prices are at persistent high, and also there is going to be increased competition for the 80% of energy supplies not blockaded. That will impact Europe as much as the rest of the world. It is unlikely oil will run out completely, but certain users will be priced out of the market as oil contracts are renewed and prices feed through to end users. It’s likely some businesses across many countries that are not economical when oil is above $100 a barrel will suffer or even close, and fuel prices will dissuade people form using their cars and flying. So there will be shortages more in the sense of affordability which will cause inflation and probably a recession.

There isn’t much point in Europe doing much to try to intervene right now. The shortages are currently focused in countries with current contracts for oil that should have come via the strait. That will change, but until it does it is unpredictable exactly how it will impact Europe. Add to that the perhaps foolish hope (and gamble by markets) that this will be temporary and that explains why there is a reluctance to act.

I’m amazed that anyone believes a word Trump says on this. We have a stalemate in the middle east at present, and its unlikely either side will back down in the next few weeks. The general feeling seems to be that the US has lost this war, and is more likely to back down first as it cannot reopen the strait be force. Iran is certainly suffering economically from the US blockade, but no where near as badly as the US and global economy will suffer if this continues.

Yeah, most of us use wind and solar now.

More seriously though, if this keeps going when are we likely to see any real impact for the average person and in what form? So far I haven’t really noticed anything different.

Blowing so much money on fossil fuel subsidies left the EU vulnerable to an oil crisis, greatly limit the budget available to invest in renewables or to react to such crisis.