Father, Hacker (Information Security Professional), Open Source Software Developer, Inventor, and 3D printing enthusiast

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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Riskable@programming.devtoAsklemmy@lemmy.mlQuestion about AI
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    19 hours ago

    Oh my. This is a huge can of worms—especially on Lemmy. There’s a lot of anti-AI hate on this platform. Almost to the point of it being a religion.

    For reference, when people say, “AI” they’re usually talking about Large Language Models (LLMs) and other forms of generative AI (e.g. diffusion models that make images). Having said that, “AI” is an enormous topic of which LLMs are a small, but increasingly popular part.

    Furthermore, when people here on Lemmy say, “AI” they’re normally talking about “Big AI” which consists of:

    • OpenAI (ChatGPT)
    • Microsoft (Copilot)
    • Anthropic (Claude)
    • Meta (Whatsapp, Facebook, Instagram, Llama models, and more)
    • Google (Gemini and shittons of other things people don’t see and often don’t even have names people outside of Google would recognize)
    • Amazon (because they’re hosting the data centers that power a lot of the other players and also do AI stuff on their own)

    Is AI inherently bad or evil? No. It’s just the latest way of giving instructions to a computer. Considering that all computer programs are literally just instructions, an AI model is just a really fancy and often expensive way of performing the same function. Albeit with a lot more breadth and flexibility. Note that I didn’t say “depth”, haha.

    The “bad” or “evil” part of AI is mostly due to the large players (aka “Big AI”) spending literally over $1 trillion so far on data centers and hardware. There’s so much demand for their services that they’re having to build their own—often dirty, fossil fuel—power plants just to power it all.

    A lot of the talk around data centers is based on myths. For example, generating an image with AI doesn’t use a liter of water. A study came out that no one actually read (beyond the summary) that stated that a really long conversation with an LLM could in theory use up half a liter of water, assuming the data center was powered by a fossil fuel power plant that was using water for cooling (as in, the heat dissipation required 0.5 liters of water from the cooling pond next to the power plant, not potable/drinking water).

    LLMs do use up a lot of power though! People often assume this is from training the AIs (which I’ll get to in a moment) because everyone “knows” it’s a long, involved process that can take months (even with a $50 billion data center specifically made for AI). However, it’s actually all the people and businesses using AI that uses up all that energy. The biggest, most power-hungry step is “inference” which is the point where the LLM tries to figure out what you just asked of it.

    The important point here is that AI is actually being used.* There’s real demand for it! It’s not just fools asking ChatGPT for strange pizza recipes. It’s mostly businesses using it for things like writing and checking code or investigating server logs for malicious activity or any number of very businessy IT things.

    The demand for AI services is so great that they can’t build data centers fast enough. Big AI, specifically is having trouble keeping responses within satisfactory time windows. The business models are still developing but they’re actually not charging enough to make up for their spending in a lot of cases. Specifically, OpenAI and Microsoft are losing money like crazy, trying to compete.

    I ran out of time… I’ll reply again about the copyright situation, training costs, and open weight (aka open source) models in a bit…



  • I’ve been researching this a bit… I’ve come to the conclusion that there is no AI bubble. In fact, we’re only just getting started down this road. Unless there’s some massive 100x efficiency breakthrough in training AI and inference, the entire world is going to be building seemingly endless AI data centers (and the normal compute kind, e.g. for stuff like AWS, Google/YouTube, Meta, banks) for at least a decade. Probably a little longer (12-15 years before demand levels out).

    Everyone thinks that “AI data center” means ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc but there’s 10,000x more demand for AI than those services. Think: Pharmaceutical companies trying to find proteins, scientists (and big agriculture!) trying to model the weather, and other businesses trying to automate stuff. Not just software; robots and things like conveyor belts.

    Another example: Ever use one of those self-checkouts that’s mostly just a camera pointing down, where you place the stuff you’re purchasing? That uses AI too.

    Having said that, there is a great big bubble in AI: OpenAI, specifically. That will definitely pop one day. And hopefully, the DRAM bullshit will go along with it.




  • As an American, I’m pleased with China’s:

    • Renewable energy adoption
    • Electric vehicle progress
    • Battery technology advancement
    • Their willingness to subsidize shipping and other supply chain stuff so that I can order cheap parts and PCBs (Chinese citizens are paying for that in their taxes… Thanks!)

    I’m disappointed and even appalled with China’s:

    • Treatment of their own citizens (especially Uyghurs, people in Tibet)
    • Endless bullshit regarding Taiwan (just leave them alone already!)
    • Social credit system
    • Installing secret back doors in electronic products
    • Helping North Korea
    • What they did in Hong Kong
    • Allowing the same people to remain in charge for so long (that’s never a good idea)
    • Lack of regulations (or enforcement) that protect their own people. Move to the 8 hour work day already! They need the equivalent of OSHA that actually does their job.
    • Completely untrustworthy government when it comes to negotiating in good faith

    The last two are the reasons why no one trusts China or many entire product categories if they originate in China. Example: Who TF is going to buy Chinese baby formula‽

    In the US we have a saying, “cheap Chinese junk.” It’s often said after some cheap Chinese product fails, often spectacularly (e.g. emits smoke or catches fire). There’s so many examples of this in my own life it’s kind of unreal:

    • Power supplies that have no moving parts yet fail completely within a year
    • Plastic stuff that just breaks for no good reason (presumably because they didn’t add a UV stabilizer to the raw plastic? Just wild speculation on my part)
    • Anything with metal parts will rust or degrade so fast you wonder how it even made it to America without self destructing.

    I can go on and on about the poor quality of tons of Chinese-made products but you get the idea. Having said that, there’s plenty of great Chinese brands that make quality stuff. It’s just that there’s so much more cheap/generic stuff from China that competes with the good stuff it gets drowned out.

    If I were in charge over there, the first thing I’d do is start real inspections of consumer goods. I mean, it shouldn’t even be possible for a company to ship a children’s product with lead in it! Mandatory inspections! Of everything. Also, if any of your inspectors are offered a bribe, give them a great big bonus for reporting it and make the person who tried to bribe them suffer. China ultimately executed the folks responsible for the baby formula thing… More of that! Show the world you’re serious about reliability and safety.

    I’d go even further and hire foreigners to inspect Chinese products, right there in China. Give them the authority to shut down assembly lines when products start showing signs of contamination. Be as open and transparent as possible!

    Of course, the social credit system needs to go. Government should not be rating their people. That’s just evil. Let the market do it with background checks and credit scores 🤣

    (I admit that’s not great either, but it’s infinitely better than having the government do it)