Anders Cornelius Madsen

@Jhex

It does not matter what you and I *think* - as long as Putin does not *know*, the possibility of the US pivoting is still in play. That is my point.

At no point have I made the argument that Russia can take on Ukraine and all of Europe - that is your argument, not mine.

I have made the argument that I think he could be insane enough to test European resolve and commitment by taking on one of the Baltic countries. I stand by that.

Here is the thing: Look to Italy and Spain. They are not in any way, shape or form looking for a fight with Russia, and if Putin can put a wedge in between them and the countries that are ready to defend the Baltic countries, the losses may be worth it. A divided Europe would make his life a lot easier, since that division could easily be extended to the support for Ukraine.

As for the military force of Ukraine, there is no country in Europe that has a stronger, better trained, more battle hardened military force than Ukraine right now. They *were* much weaker at the beginning of the war, but the Russians underestimated them even then, and made a major mess of their invasion. I see no reason to think that they would be equally stupid again.

If Russia decided to throw 100000 men with pitchforks against a Baltic country, they would probably take it, simply by being more men.

@Jhex

There are decent people left in the US, but my main point is, that it IS unknown - the second you tell the US to fuck off, the unknown part goes away.

As for Russia, only a fool would write off a nation with a one million man strong army. Yes, they have had huge losses and yes, their economy is in shambles, but they are still fighting against an almost equally large army in Ukraine and almost having a stalemate.

I don’t think Putin would take on all of Europe, but I do think that he could decide to test the European resolve by taking on one or more of the Baltic countries. If he succeed, they will be relatively easy to defend (note the “relatively”), and give him better access to the Baltic Sea.

Do I think it would be suicide to take on a Finnish neighbor after they joined NATO? Absolutely. Do I think that Putin could be insane enough to try? Absolutely too.

@MattR @Anonymaus

I don’t think anyone seriously believe that the US would come to any kind of help, should Putin go after an European country, but currently it is unknown if the rest of the Republican party and the US military would stand by and just leave it at that.

As such, Putin cannot be entirely sure that he would have free roam as far as the US is concerned, and that is a better position to be in for Europe at the moment.

However much we like to think that we can take on Putin on our own, there are still glaring holes in our defense that needs to be addressed before we can hold down the fort for certain without any help from the US.

Every day that Putin is left wondering is a day where Europe can expand its military capabilities with non-US weapon systems, and we need as many of those days before the inevitable break-up as possible.