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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • That’s about as nuclear of an option as they can threaten in terms of geoeconomics and how they’ll directly impact the US, tbh.

    For those in the back: they’re threatening to jump on the bandwagon that’s shifting away from the petrodollar, which would have absolutely catastrophic consequences for the US economy, as well as in general. Think “fall of the USSR” type shit. This is not an exaggeration.

    And yeah, it can absolutely be argued that the petrodollar was a stupid fucking idea for a lot of reasons. But it did let the US more or less not care about debt at all for over a half century. Pulling that rug is going to have a lot of consequences in a lot of places all over the world - not just the US - and will ultimately yield a lot of chaos.












  • So, one of the really interesting things to me about this approach is that it offers the same asymmetric value proposition that cheap attack drones do to modern pre-drone IADS.

    That is: this is a platform that costs 10-15k, and an AGM-88 of modern manufacture costs almost 900k, and a Kh-31 costs about 550k - and, just as importantly, both require a long time to manufacture. So, you could theoretically make a moderately large distributed array sprinkled over a few square kilometers, and even if they’re ALL turned on, it quickly becomes logistically infeasible to knock them all out without spending a silly quantity on antirad munitions, as well as massively attriting your stocks of antirad munitions. And if you turn like 10-25% of them on at a time and cycle through your array, the problem becomes even harder for the attacker. And if you have some sort of process or mechanism - like, oh I don’t know, figuring out how to do light aerial transport with cargo drones, or even figuring out how to mount these distributed array nodes on the drones themselves, and some sort of lightweight tether for providing power - the problem becomes a MASSIVE pain in the ass for an adversary (especially that last idea, which introduces z-axis and immediate maneuverability, such that the array could feasibly detect and altogether avoid an incoming antirad munition).

    And that’s the paradigm of modern warfare - not just drones, but also networked and attritable systems that maintain functionality when elements are taken offline