My guess is they’re not a 50/50 binary. Like how in sports betting one team is favored over another to win, maybe its a 45/55 split. So if any given military action has a 5% chance of happening and a 95% chance of non happening, the overall aggregate of bets on this kind of thing should pretty closely mirror that 95/5 split.
My guess is they’re not a 50/50 binary. Like how in sports betting one team is favored over another to win, maybe its a 45/55 split. So if any given military action has a 5% chance of happening and a 95% chance of non happening, the overall aggregate of bets on this kind of thing should pretty closely mirror that 95/5 split.