I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.


Sorry, neither do I: must have been either tired, or otherwise-stupider…
There are 2 probable intents:
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number-2 is the only 1 that makes sense to my instinct, but I’m sorry I totally-borked the idea-to-typing job.
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