Trump has no say. Netanyahu will continue to annex Lebanon in the background while the news circle jerks Trump.
The strait has to be open 3+ weeks for insurance to cover vessels again
“Hey man repay us for all the shit you stirred with your invasion and leave this region so you cannot so easily bomb us again and we’re good”
“lol no, submit or we’ll bomb more kids”
Shart of the deal.
He’ll never accept anything that allows the media to go back to focusing on the Epstein files.
Europe should get together with Russia and China to negotiate with Iran. Iran will trust them more. They would demand less than Trump. For example, Trump wants Iran to hand over its enriched uranium to the US, but Europe, China, and Russia would accept the enriched uranium being turned over to Russia, China, or Pakistan.
IMO, China has no interest in helping their geopolitical rivals out of this mess, and Russia likely benefits from the US being engaged in another prolonged, dipshit war.
The EU helped Obama negotiate the nuclear antiproliferation treaty that Trump trashed during his first term, and Iran would look for a stronger deal from them because of that.
Pakistan doesn’t want further conflict on its borders, and will likely push for peace talks, but have very little to give in negotiations.
All other powers benefit more from sitting and watching this play out, blaming the higher inflation and fuels costs, rightfully, on the US and Israel.
The US needs to concede or force regime change for this to end anytime soon.
China would benefit because it gets much of its oil from Iran. China and Russia would also benefit because suppose the Iranian regime collapses and a pro-US government takes over. Then the US would control the oil like it now does with Venezuela. Pakistan can agree to store Iran’s enriched uranium. Europe’s deal this time would be independent of the US.
China does get oil from Iran, but IIRC it looks like they’re shoring up their oil shipments. Countries downstream of China seem to be getting hit harder e.g. Australia. China / Russia doesn’t want a pro-US coup to take over, but the IRG seems to be surprisingly resilient and I think they’ll view small shipments of support as sufficient for now, while they gain the PR win.
I don’t think Europe cares to make another antiproliferation or oil treaty if Israeli hostilities continue for they have no forceful leverage to stop the US or the rabid dog that is Israel’s right wing government.
Nobody knows wants going on internally in Iran. Europe, Russia, and China should attempt to negotiate a deal with Iran. The US and Iran appear to be in a stalemate. I think Iran would accept a deal in which Russia stores Iran’s enriched uranium and issues it back as needed for peaceful purposes. All sanctions would be lifted and Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz. Europe would also stop selling military items to Israel.
TACO Tuesday news. They buy just before the good news on Friday and sell just before the bad news.