cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/50782588
China is undergoing a major demographic shift that is reversing one of its biggest economic strengths: a large, young workforce.
According to research cited in a report, the country’s birthrate has been falling sharply, signalling the end of its long-standing population advantage. Wang Chan-hsi, an associate researcher at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research [in Taiwan], noted that this transition is turning into a liability for economic growth.
In his article titled “Observations on China’s Population Structure Issues,” he explained that the number of newborns has dropped dramatically in recent years. …
The scale of the decline is striking.
Wang pointed out that births fell to 7.92 million last year, which is just 44 per cent of the 2016 figure. This not only missed earlier projections of 9 million and 8 million births, but also marked the lowest level since 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was founded.
China’s total population has also begun shrinking, falling to 1.40489 billion and recording four consecutive years of negative growth.
Wang warned that China’s birthrate could soon resemble levels seen in countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan within the next three to five years.
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[Gender imbalance] is adding another layer to the demographic challenge.
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China’s population structure shows a clear imbalance between men and women, especially across regions. Cities have about 106 males for every 100 females, while rural areas see this ratio rise to 120 males per 100 females.
Wang noted that nearly 30 million unmarried young men live in rural areas, while more than 20 million unmarried women are concentrated in major cities.
This mismatch is reducing marriage rates, which in turn further depresses birthrates, creating a reinforcing cycle of decline.
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Wang highlighted the challenge of “growing old before getting rich,” meaning the country is ageing before reaching the wealth levels typically associated with developed economies.
This creates pressure on healthcare systems, pension schemes and workforce productivity.
Despite ageing at a pace similar to other East Asian economies, China’s overall wealth remains comparatively lower, making the transition harder to manage.
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