Linux is down slightly after a peak month, but probably that month had Linux over-represented. This month we see English down a bit too, Chinese is up a little.

https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/Steam-Hardware-Software-Survey-Welcome-to-Steam

https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/

I copied the data from gamingonlinux and put it into my own sheet with an exponential trendline (red) and a moving average line (green) to smooth out the variance of the survey. We’re definitely trending upwards.

Here’s the csv data

0.78, 0.72, 0.80, 0.82, 0.82, 0.77, 0.82, 0.81, 0.84, 0.76, 0.79, 0.80, 0.83, 0.83, 0.81, 0.83, 0.90, 0.83, 0.87, 0.89, 0.91, 0.88, 0.86, 0.89, 0.94, 0.90, 0.90, 0.78, 0.91, 0.81, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, 0.89, 1.00, 1.02, 1.05, 1.13, 1.16, 1.11, 1.06, 1.02, 1.00, 1.14, 1.12, 1.18, 1.23, 1.27, 1.23, 1.28, 1.44, 1.38, 1.38, 1.27, 0.84, 1.32, 1.47, 1.44, 1.96, 1.82, 1.63, 1.39, 1.91, 1.97, 1.95, 1.76, 1.94, 1.90, 2.32, 2.08, 2.08, 1.92, 1.87, 2.00, 2.03, 2.29, 2.06, 1.45, 2.33, 2.27, 2.69, 2.57, 2.89, 2.64, 2.68, 3.05, 3.20, 3.58, 3.38, 2.23, 5.33, 4.52

  • Contramuffin@lemmy.worldEnglish
    31·
    1 day ago

    It seems that the lag period (pre-Steam Deck) is causing the exponential fit to not be that good. Can you try fitting only to data from the past 4 years to see if the fit is better?

    Edit: Was easy enough for me to do, and I had the software to do it, so I did it.

    Details:

    Fitted entire dataset with a non-linear regression (minimizing sum of squares), with the given model:

    Y = baseline + Y0 * exp(k*t)

    Fitted equation was determined to be Y=0.7717 + 0.04451 * exp(0.04677 * t)

    With this fit, doubling time is 14.82 months.

    R^2 is 0.8851

    95% CI:

    baseline = 0.6029-0.9093

    Y0 = 0.01744-0.1023

    k = 0.03749-0.05734

    Doubling time = 12.09-18.49

    Edit 2: if we do a bit of the statistical funny, we can plug the equation into Desmos and try to extrapolate:

    With this data, we can estimate that Linux usage will hit a solid 5% on Steam after ~97 months (most recent datapoint is month 91 in my dataset), which should correspond to ~November 2026. If we extrapolate farther into the future, we can estimate that Linux will hit 10% at ~114 months, which corresponds to ~March 2028